Hawaii's hot primary--the results

Akaka wins Primary

"Case closed!" was the gleeful shout, at Akaka's party headquarters, when the early returns foretold the story.

Ed Case gets "pun"ished that way. One of his earliest campaigns pitted him against Toni Worst, in what was inevitably billed as the (wait for it) "Worst/Case scenario". Case won that time. The moderate Democrat, with a strong independent streak, eventually went on to became Hawaii's junior member of Congress.

Last Saturday, Representative Case's surprising primary challenge to incumbent Senator Daniel Akaka came up short. Akaka got 54% of votes cast,to Case's 45%, in Hawaii's Sept. 23 primary. (Official results will, eventually, be available at the Hawaii State Elections website.)

(I am late to blog about this. Here in Ottawa we were hit by thunderstorms last Sunday, which lead to power outages in our village. Our internet connection was down for several days. All better now.)

Akaka made the most of his strong position. He enjoyed formidable advantages: incumbency, a solid war-chest and good name recognition. The junior Senator also got fulsome support from the rest of Hawaii's small delegation, senior Senator Daniel Inouye and senior Rep. Neil Abercrombie. With more money and strong union backing, Akaka had plenty to work with, including something rare in politics--he's a genuinely nice guy, well-liked by all.

Case had to come up with reasons voters should abandon Akaka, and counter cynical charges that sheer ambition was behind his audacious move. You could just hear the tongues wagging, when Case announced his intent to run, in January. "How pushy he is, to try cut in line!" (It doesn't hold up, though. If personal gain was Case's motivation, there are plenty of safer paths--toward more certain success--than the one he chose!)

Here's Case's case: Yes, Sen Akaka is perfectly nice, however, it can be argued that the Honorable Senator has not been notably effective. (Time Magazine ranked Akaka as one of the 5 worst in the whole Senate.) Furthermore, Case maintained, Akaka is too liberal and is prone to the blind partisanship, which causes gridlock. It was time for a younger, more moderate and (supposedly) more effective person to step up to bat for Hawaii, and its future.

Case may have failed to fully demonstrate that he could be the more effective Senator. True, he was willing to cross party lines and vote the issues. If that defines effectiveness, he'd win, hands down. However, Case would also carry a large measure of mistrust (outright hostility?) from his own delegation, and many in the State party, for years. There is a price to pay for stepping on so many toes.

Akaka just turned 82. The campaign did come to focus heavily on the question of age, seniority and planning for transition. While many were sympathetic to Case's assertion that Hawaii would be wise to anticipate some inevitable transition--and get a younger Senator-in-training ASAP--the fact remains that Akaka already has the seniority Case would be looking to build up. Why throw that away?

The war in Iraq became a tipping point for many voters. Akaka voted against going to Iraq in the first place, and he favors a swift pull-out now. Case was not in national office when the 2002 vote was taken. However, he's said he would probably have voted to support going to Iraq, based on what was known at that time. Case adds that he takes the threat of terrorism very seriously--just wishing it away will not do.

Case was successfully painted by Akaka supporters, if not by Akaka himself, as a pro-war, Bush-backer. (A sloppy charge. Case is no follower.) Based on his own assessment of the issue, Case would like to leave Iraq. However, he feels the US has a practical and moral obligation to stay until the Iraq government is strong enough to stand on its own.

It is interesting to speculate how important Iraq was in voters' minds. Clearly, for many it was the decisive factor. Minus a peace vote, would the outcome have changed? Who knows? This race can be viewed as ending up on the "time to leave" side of the ledger in a larger national referendum on the war.

Case made a very respectable showing, but he may have been hurt by a few missteps late in his campaign. For example, Case sent around an excerpt from the memoir of former Democratic Governor George Ariyoshi. In it, Ariyoshi criticized Hawaii Democrats for being closed to fresh leadership, unless the new blood obediently toed the line, in robotic fashion. Although Ariyoshi's remarks came from a speech given in 1972, they read like current commentary on Case's struggle within his own party.

As quoted, it also sounded like an implicit endorsement. Ariyoshi quickly protested what he called a deceptive misuse of his words and very publicly proclaimed his support for Akaka.

Case's serious challenge did mean Akaka had to rally his supporters and work very hard. It payed off for the Akaka camp on primary day. The election numbers showed high absentee voter participation. However, overall turn-out on election day was low. Analysts say both factors worked in Akaka's favor.

Case has three more months to go in his term from Hawaii's Second Congressional District, representing rural Oahu and all the neighbor islands. He is still considering what he'll do after that.

In the race to replace Case, former Lt. Governor, Mazie Hirono, beat out 9 rivals on the Democratic ticket. She will face Republican State Senator Bob Hogue in November. (Hirono and Hogue just squeaked past their closest challengers.)

Akaka will now face Republican State Rep. Cynthia Thielen in November. Thielen, 73, is a moderate with a strong environmental record. She wasn't even on last Saturday's ballot. She was selected to replace Jerry Coffee, who won the GOP primary although he'd already withdrawn from the race for health reasons. Thielen says she will make a serious race out of the last-minute run, but it's going to be a very tall order.

Political observers are still analyzing the election data, mining results for clues as to political or demographic shifts. Clearly, change is occurring in the islands, but to what degree and at what pace?

I will close this last entry in my Hawaii Blog with one of many archaic sayings I learned at my mother's knee: "It should be possible for honorable men to disagree honorably."

Mahalo to Senator Akaka and to Representative Case for the dignity they brought to their hard-fought contest. Two keiki o ka a'ina (children of the land) who do us proud.

Pau / the end